By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE, July 21 (Reuters) – Asian stocks gained on Tuesday as mediation efforts in the Middle East pushed oil prices away from a one-month high, while investors braced for a slate of corporate earnings that will test an under pressure AI trade.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said they would impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, a move that could further disrupt energy supplies, amid attacks between the U.S. and Iran, even as efforts were being made to revive a fragile ceasefire.
Brent crude futures eased 0.38% to $88.88 per barrel in early trading on Tuesday as investors latched on to hopes of a resolution. Brent hit its highest since mid-June at $91.42 a barrel in the previous session. [O/R]
A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire, intended to pave the way for a lasting agreement to end the war that began on February 28 with U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.
“I think we’ve got a really strange situation that investors are still trying to look at things with a glass half full view, as we’ve seen this all before a few months ago and want the same outcome,” said Nick Twidale, chief market strategist at ATFX Global in Sydney.
Twidale noted that concern has to be growing that things could get out of hand and the conflict really escalates across the region. “Feel we might see one catalyst that pops things and then we are off to the races,” he said.
In stocks, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.25% higher after dropping for three straight sessions. Japan’s Nikkei gained over 1% while South Korea’s KOSPI rose nearly 3%.
U.S. stock futures were slightly higher while European futures were down 0.6% in early trading.
Global stocks, led by chipmakers, have been hit by severe volatility in recent weeks as investors fret about high valuations, pace of profit growth and whether the investment into AI infrastructure will yield tangible results.
AI’S EARNINGS TEST
Investor focus this week will be on earnings from Alphabet and Intel along with other firms to gauge the impact of the war and whether the AI trade has more room to run given sky-high profit expectations for the second-quarter.
Strong earnings from Asian chip bellwethers Samsung Electronics and TSMC in recent weeks were not enough to satisfy investor expectations, underscoring the challenge facing the industry.
“While demand for AI hardware remains red hot, with companies barely able to keep up supply, investor expectations for earnings have become increasingly lofty, rendering the sector vulnerable even to a marginal adjustment in projections,” said Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong.
“The economic backdrop is becoming more challenging as well, with rising energy prices and higher interest rates complicating the outlook and showing that even the AI hardware sector is not entirely immune to such broader developments,” Neumann said.
Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions have also brought back inflationary worries and pushed Treasury yields higher. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations, was at 4.206% in Asian hours after gaining 4 basis points on Monday.
Traders are pricing in 33 basis points of interest rate increases this year, with a hike fully priced in for October.
The dollar was steady against most major currencies supported by safe-haven flows. The euro last bought $1.14145, while the Japanese yen was at 162.51 per dollar, keeping traders on alert for intervention from Tokyo.
(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
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