By Shubham Batra
NEW DELHI, Sept 2 (Reuters) – India’s statistics secretary defended the country’s latest 7.8% growth estimate and large revisions to recent GDP data, saying the changes reflected the use of more granular price data and additional sources rather than any systematic bias in the numbers.
Statistics Secretary Saurabh Garg’s comments came after former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg questioned the latest GDP estimates, arguing that a sharp downward revision to the growth numbers in the April-June quarter of the last fiscal year has made the latest growth rate appear stronger.
The statistics ministry rejected that interpretation, saying the latest figures are based on a new GDP series with a 2022/23 base year, under which historical data have also been revised to incorporate updated sources and methodology.
“It’s a combination of both these, which has led to these revisions,” Saurabh Garg told reporters on Wednesday.
India’s economy grew 7.8% in the April-June quarter, government data showed on Monday, comfortably beating economists’ expectations.
Growth slowed from 8.6% in the January-March quarter but this was revised from 7.8% earlier. The April-June growth, however, accelerated from 6.9% a year earlier and exceeded the Reserve Bank of India’s 7% forecast for the first quarter.
The former finance secretary’s comments gained traction after the opposition Congress party seized on them to accuse the government of fudging the data and cast doubt on the 7.8% growth figure, with party general secretary Jairam Ramesh calling the numbers “statistical gymnastics”.
The statistics secretary further said that the revisions to recent quarters were also driven by a combination of the switch from wholesale price data to a producer price index and the addition of more data sources.
“The PPI provides more granular price information, with the number of deflators used in the estimates rising to more than 300 from about 180 previously,” Saurabh Garg said.
He also pushed back against suggestions that revisions were systematically lowering the previous year’s base and thereby boosting subsequent growth.
Over the past three years, he said, quarterly revisions had moved in both directions, while changes at the annual level had been relatively small.
He said future revisions to quarterly estimates are expected to be smaller as more timely data are now available, although some changes are inevitable as additional information comes in.
(Reporting by Shubham Batra in New Delhi; Editing by Leroy Leo)
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