By Pranoy Krishna
BENGALURU, Sept 9 (Reuters) – India’s consumer inflation likely rose to a 20-month high in August, driven by higher food and fuel prices, marking a third straight month above the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% medium-term target, a Reuters poll of economists showed.
Annual consumer price inflation, based on the consumer price index (CPI), was forecast to rise to 4.80% in August from 4.45% in July, according to the September 3 to 9 Reuters poll of 44 economists. Forecasts for the data, due on September 14, ranged from 4.40% to 5.05%.
With inflation remaining within the RBI’s 2%-6% target band, the central bank held interest rates last month, although minutes of its latest meeting signalled it was prepared to tighten policy if price pressures broadened. It is not expected to raise rates until next year.
An erratic monsoon disrupted food supplies, driving up prices of essentials such as sugar, cereals, milk, edible oils, eggs and meat. Global crude prices, now nearing $100 a barrel, and higher cooking gas prices also fueled inflation pressures.
“The increase is expected to be primarily driven by elevated food prices together with a further rise in fuel inflation,” said Kanika Pasricha, chief economic adviser at Union Bank of India.
Persistent year-on-year declines in potato and pea prices continued to offset increases in other food items, limiting the rise in headline inflation.
Sugar prices hit a record high in August and likely added at least 15 basis points to headline inflation, Pasricha said. India’s ban on sugar exports to cool domestic prices, which began in May, will stay in place until end- September.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel components and is seen as a gauge of underlying demand pressures, was expected to rise to 4.1% in August. India does not publish an official core inflation measure.
Wholesale price inflation is also forecast to edge up to 9.89% in August from 9.78% in July, the survey showed, hovering around 10% for a fourth straight month.
A separate Reuters poll conducted last month showed the RBI was expected to raise rates by 25 basis points in the second quarter of 2027, followed by a further increase in the fourth quarter, taking the policy rate to 5.75%.
(Reporting by Pranoy Krishna; Polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Renusri K; Editing by Vivek Mishra, Hari Kishan and Shri Navaratnam)
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